Trump is obviously not a peacemaker in the ordinary sense. His limitations as a peacemaker in the tradition of political realism and imperialist manouevering are now also becoming evident.
If the Ukraine war is to end, it must end quickly lest warmongers adhering to a different imperialist strategy re-ignite it. A degree of shock therapy is needed. Trump is the man for that. But more than that is needed to turn the super tanker of US-western policy around.
Zelensky is part of the problem but is also trapped by the problem. Any other leader would have to deal with the same trap. Support in Ukraine for the war – or at least willingness to die for it – is declining. But any leader trying to end it must still reckon with de-stabilisation or an outright coup from the right. The best way to marginalise the right would be a credible promise of US and European economic support, delivered in a way that would not antagonise Russia as war by other means.
Trump would be relatively well-placed to do that, were it not the polar opposite of his whole strategy.
Europe would also be well-placed to help, were it possible for that to be seen as part of a re-normalisation of relations with Russia, with economic benefits for all sides. But that is the polar opposite of the trajectory and recent statements of European leaders.
Trump is busy trashing whatever small hope there was of European leaders coming round to that position. For some of them, hostility to Trump is a gift that keeps on giving. It allows them to construct a pseudo-left skin that stops the left mobilising properly even while they move rapidly rightwards. That strategy worked better when Trump was out of office and conflicts with the historic attachment of most of them to obsequiousness towards the US. But Trump is giving them little incentive to return to that tradition.
The US has sought since the end of the Cold War to block the emergence of a strong, independent-minded Europe incorporating or semi-incorporating Russia. Perhaps Trump believes it doesn’t matter to the US if Europe crashes and burns. But the US and the world won’t really be able to stand clear of the wreckage.
The end of the Ukraine war is not inevitable once the US pulls out. Without the US, but with an unstable or collapsed Ukrainian state the war will transform but will not necessarily end. Some of the global risks will diminish. New risks will emerge. People will keep on dying.
Europeans need to get a grip, turn their ship around, stop their leaders war-mongering and stop counting on Trump to do their peacemaking for them. It’s fun laughing at the discomfiture of our leaders as they grapple with changing times. But it isn’t enough.